Maksym Khylko: Concentration of Russian forces on Ukrainian border explained with upcoming talks in Minsk

On of the concessions Russia wants from Ukraine is the unilateral demilitarisation of Shyrokyne.

Maksym Khylko, a Ukrainian politologist and expert at East European Security Research Initiative, said it in an interview with charter97.org.

– According to Ukrainian intelligence, this is the largest concentration of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine and “hybrid” forces in Donbas since the beginning of the conflict. What can this fact mean, in your opinion?

– The matter is that another round of talks in Minsk is scheduled for August 3. Russia escalated the situation ahead of any peaceful talks in Minsk, using forces to pressure Ukraine. Let's recall previous talks. We saw attacks from the Russian side each time.

It doesn't necessarily mean a military offensive. Russia will probably try to use force to make Ukraine make some concessions, unilateral or profitable only for the Russian side, though they may look like “mutual”.

One of the possible concessions may be, for example, an agreement on the demilitarisation of the village of Shyrokyne near Mariupol by Ukraine without a clear condition of who will control the demilitarised zone. It's clear that if Ukraine makes this decision and withdraws its troops, Shyrokyne can immediately be occupied by Russian forces and militants, because it is Ukraine that is the meaningful subject of the talks that fulfils its obligations.

Militants are unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive in all directions, but some local attacks in certain directions are possible ahead of the Minsk talks. They will have the aim to force Ukraine to make concessions.

– Are Ukraine's armed forces ready to repel a possible offensive, whatever aims it may pursue?

– Much depends on the scale of the possible attack. It will be difficult to repel it in case of a full-scale offensive by Russian troops. But we should remember that the Ukrainian armed forces differ in quality from those we saw before. They have the necessary military experience. Moreover, they now have a clear understanding who is the aggressor. They also understand they can use any means against it. In case of a local attack, as it was near Marinka, Ukrainian forces are ready to repel it. The global invasion by Russian troops doesn't seem to be highly probable.

Clashes can become more active and the threat of a massive invasion may grow with the aim of influencing key international players, above all Berlin and Paris. Europe takes seriously the risk of a big war in Ukraine, in view of economic losses it will lead to and proximity to the theatre of war. The concentration of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border and the possible offensive have the aim of making international partners voice the position profitable for Russia.