Possible Consequences Of Diplomatic Scandal Between Tajikistan And Russia

Russian politics is becoming increasingly xenophobic.

There is a spark between Russia and Tajikistan. A note was handed to the Russian ambassador in Dushanbe. In the Russian Federation itself, a "witch hunt" began, checks on migrants from Tajikistan, thousands of citizens of the country are not allowed into the country.

What political consequences will such a dive of Moscow and Dushanbe have? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Slovak political scientist and President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO), Bratislava, Grigorij Mesežnikov:

— The consequences of this conflict will be negative for the two states at the same time, but it must be clear that Tajikistan is in a difficult geopolitical situation. Russia has so far been considered (and, in fact, is still considered) by the leadership of this country as the main strategic ally. It is a well-known fact that a significant part of the population of Tajikistan is economically tied either to Russia, or to work in the Russian Federation, or to receive so-called remittances, funds that Tajik citizens earn in Russia and then transfer to their families.

Russian domestic politics is becoming increasingly xenophobic, and this often applies even to Russian citizens of non-Russian origin. Now there is a tendency to search for some kind of internal enemy in relation to the citizens of Central Asia, especially in the situation that has developed after the terrorist act in the Crocus Hall, when the regime considers it possible to transfer some of the responsibility for the authorities' failure to protect the population from terrorism to migrants, that they pose a threat to security and so on.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that Tajikistan is part of the defense alliance created by Russia. I think it will be such an indicative moment — whether the Tajik leadership will draw any conclusions regarding this aspect of cooperation with the Russian Federation. But to be honest, I am skeptical about this, because Tajikistan is ruled by authoritarian regime. It is enough to look at the map and understand that, most likely, it will continue to focus on Russia.

Until some more significant social and political changes begin in the countries of Central Asia, at least minimal movements towards softer, democratic forms of government, the continuation of cooperation between authoritarian governments and Russia seems the most likely scenario. There is a certain logic here — Russia concentrates around itself states that are similar to its own regime.

— The Russian economy is largely built on migrants from Central Asia, especially today, when many Russians are fighting in Ukraine. Can a mass exodus of migrants from the Russian Federation begin?

— I wouldn't rule it out. How massive it will be will depend on how the overall situation develops, how the Russian leadership will react to the situations that have now led to a deterioration in relations with Tajikistan. Russia may simply restrict the entry of migrants from Central Asia. In my opinion, these processes are already beginning, when citizens of these countries are simply "wrapped up" when trying to enter Russia.

Suppose a situation of intolerance towards migrants from Central Asia is created. In that case, a certain part of these citizens may simply leave Russia to return to their homeland. In some regions, and in Moscow itself, migrants are quite a significant help for solving some economic problems, in this case, a significant part of Russian business is profiting. Even the part of the Russian business that is tied to some corruption schemes in the field of migration will begin to experience certain difficulties.

At the same time, not only citizens of Tajikistan, but also citizens of other countries may feel insecure, feel in danger. Such cases have already occurred before, when these citizens became the object of racial attacks. As far as I know, there have even been fatalities.

For migrants from Central Asian countries, Russia is not the best opportunity for living and earning, but given the difficult situation in these countries themselves, residents of these countries are also limited in some way to solve issues outside Russia. What opportunities do these people have, where can they go? If we assess the situation realistically, then the European Union is probably not quite open to them. China is a country where everything is regulated and controlled. I do not think that Beijing will try to solve this situation by helping the citizens of these states. So they are currently in a very unfavourable situation.

If you like this article, you can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL 97 1160 2202 0000 0002 1671 1123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com