Austrian "Kurier": Lukashenka on Thin Ice

Talks in Minsk, Belarus fighters in trenches in eastern Ukraine - the war radiates to Belarus.

A country with a leadership that hardly fears anything more  than instability. In an interview with Bloomberg President Alexander Lukashenko said now: A problem is that the US was not involved openly that he believed "without the Americans there can be no stability in Ukraine." The cryptic formula for an invitation? The war has provided him, the autocrat outlawed by EU & US, with an unprecedented stage - one with risks.

On November 20, it's time again: presidential election. The winner will be Lukashenko, President since 1994, sanctioned by the EU. There is only an open question: How will the street react to his re-election? Because what happens in Ukraine, always has an echo in Belarus. And a lot has happened: Revolution, Crimea, War. Hundreds of Belarusians are fighting on the side of Ukraine. Networks of Belarusian activists have regrouped in Kiev: in freedom, as they say.

Andrei Sannikov sees Lukashenko on thin ice. He was a candidate for the presidency in the 2010 elections and ultimately the strongest opposition candidate, was in prison for two years and now lives in Poland. "Lukashenko's regime," he says, "is incapable of reform." Price rise and Russia's economic plight does not pass without a trace for Belarus. It could go off at any time, he says. "The disposition of such regimes is that they seem incredibly strong, but can fall incredibly quickly as well." 2010 had shown that there is potential.

It was the evening after the presidential election of 2010, when a huge mass marched to the Presidential office in Minsk. It smelled of Revolution. There was traffic jam - until police and army intervened. The next day it was as if nothing had happened: Lukashenko was president, the traffic flowed, all opposition candidates were in custody. Also Sannikau.

The revolution and the war in Ukraine today he calls a "liberation struggle that the entire post-Soviet world requires." The fall of the Ukrainian President Yanukovych had been “frightening” for Lukashenko, he says. But so far he knew how to use it in his spirit. Finally, Lukashenko scored during the Minsk-talks and gained broad public - group photo with Merkel, Hollande, Putin included. And above all: Not a word of criticism by the EU guests on the situation of human rights. It annoys Sannikau. In Ukraine it was a struggle ultimately for something like values. Values that were sacrificed in Minsk. One, as he says, "fatal signal".

For Lukashenko at the same time it is a delicate balancing act between the EU and Russia. On the second day of January, one day after the entry into force of the Treaty on Moscow's prestigious project "Eurasian Union", he stated the goal is to minimize Russia's influence. Later he blustered against a monetary union - in the face of falling ruble. These are domestic political signals to opponents who accuse him of selling out to Russia.

One must measure Lukashenko not by his words but in deeds, says Sannikau. He refers to Russian military presence in Belarus, as well as close coordination with Moscow in dealing with the US and EU sanctions against Russia - which do not apply against Belarus.

About himselve Sannikau says: "I'm out of the country, but not out of politics." He would be ready, it he was needed. And he says, "I hope there will come a day when Belarussians come back from Ukraine - and with them Ukrainians to help us."