Ukrainian Pilot: Su-27 Could Fall In Crimea For Two Reasons

Analysis by military experts.

On Thursday, March 28, the Russian Su-27 fighter was shot down over Crimea and fell into the Black Sea. There are two recent: a technical malfunction and a mistake of the Russian air defence.

What could have happened? This question Charter97.org addressed to Ukrainian pilot and military expert Oleksiy Melnyk:

– I assume that there could be both the first and the second reasons. Since the version that it was the work of the Ukrainian air defence is excluded, in this case, a "friendly fire" is most likely.

This conclusion can be drawn from the information of eyewitnesses who heard the sounds of launches before the aircraft began to fall. I emphasize that most likely we are talking about "friendly fire".

Although we can’t exclude the technical malfunction version. By the way, the Russian leadership (state and military) always and at any level tries not so much to establish the truth (and even more – not to tell the general public about it) as to come up with the most convenient version for themselves, which, in general, they do not always do it well. Then they have to disentangle the consequences of the lies that were made at the beginning.

I emphasize that Ukraine does not have weapons for the destruction of the Russian Su-27 over Crimea. Since the range of Ukrainian air defence systems does not allow them to be shot down. The maximum that can be expected under ideal conditions is about 150 km range.

The range of air defence depends on many factors. Including the altitude of the target. Even under ideal conditions, the Ukrainian air defence is now technically unable to reach Sevastopol. This is what concerns ground-based systems.

— So, what’s the effectiveness level of Russian air defence in the occupied peninsula? How can it be knocked out of service?

— There are several ways to counter air defence. This is both electronic warfare and the most effective way — destruction. In this regard, Ukraine has already done a certain part of the work. There were confirmed facts of the destruction of the most modern Russian S-400 missile systems. But there is a problem in the limited resources of Ukraine to do this regularly and on a large scale.

— In February, the Ukrainian Air Force shot down 13 Russian aircraft. How did this affect the morale and quality of the troop's training?

— You know, in the case of the Storm-Z troops – just their relatives and close units will know about the death of 13 occupiers. The flight team is a relatively small group of officers. Therefore, the death of even one pilot instantly spreads throughout this community.

Moreover, in aviation, there is always such a practice as a newsletter. Any accident or catastrophe (at least in peacetime) comes with the notification of preliminary causes and when the investigation is completed. That is, these cases become known to the entire flight crew.

It's hard to say what effect this had on the Russian pilots. In other cases, we observe a rather unpredictable and illogical reaction of Russians to combat losses. After all, according to the idea, 400,000 losses should have demotivated the entire Russian people from participating in the war. Today, we do not see this.

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